REALITY CHECK NO FILTER.
You may not like this. I don’t either. But this is not about what we like it’s about what it is.
I’m not a fan of President Tinubu. Never have I been. Probably never will be. But oya let’s stop deceiving ourselves. Let’s come down from the clouds of hope and land hard on the concrete of Nigerian politics. Because if we don’t do this reality check now, we will still be holding prayer vigils in 2027 and wondering how it all happened again.
Because if you understand how politics is played in Nigeria, you’ll know that Tinubu will return for a second term whether he “wins” or not.
Let’s go back and trace this man’s political survival:
1. Buhari vs Tinubu:
Tinubu backed Buhari to become president in 2015. Fast forward to 2023, Buhari practically did everything short of writing “DO NOT VOTE TINUBU” on Aso Rock’s gate. But what happened? Tinubu bulldozed through it all. Did he clear Buhari’s doubts or not?
2. The CBN Currency Redesign Saga:
Emefiele changed the entire currency just to frustrate one man. People couldn’t buy food. Couldn’t withdraw their own money. Nigerians were made to crawl just so Tinubu could fall. Did he outsmart them or not?
3. The Cocaine Allegations:
International media called him a drug lord. Nigerians circulated court documents like party flyers. It was supposed to be a final nail. Did it work or not? He still stood tall, took the oath, and waved to the same crowd that once booed.
4. The Obidient Movement:
The most organic political movement Nigeria has ever seen. Cult-like passion. Youth-driven. Idealistic. Loud. Hopeful. Beautiful.
Young people rose up like a tsunami. If any movement could unseat a political heavyweight, this was it. Did it succeed in benching Tinubu or not?
5.He was an outsider in his own party. Buhari’s camp didn’t lift a finger for him. He had no federal might, no INEC machinery, no DSS leverage.
No Government Machinery:
He didn’t have state power on his side. Buhari was cold toward him. Aso Rock was like a ghost town to him. DSS, EFCC, INEC none of them was clearly Team BAT. And yet… did that deter him or not?All he had was structure and money. And in Nigeria, those two things can resurrect a corpse and send it to Aso Rock.
6. APC Presidential Primaries:
90% of aspirants miraculously stepped down for him on live TV. Some were even smiling while stepping down as if they saw an angel.
They lined up like school children.
Rumour has it he bought their nomination forms, settled their ambitions, and told them to queue behind him. And they did.
Rumour or not, did it work or not?
7. INEC and Judiciary:
The election was a national drama. The results came with questions. The tribunal came with aspirin.
The election was chaotic. The results were controversial. Nigerians expected the courts to right the wrongs. But in the end, the judiciary folded into silence. They didn’t swing justice they whispered it. So what changed?
The institutions stood with power. The judiciary silence as ever. They always do. That’s how the game is played here.
8. Now the bitter pill:
He now has everything, the full state machinery. Executive power. INEC. DSS. Police. Military. MEDIA. Customs. CBN. EFCC.
He now controls everything executive power, INEC, security agencies, federal purse, judiciary, and a structure so deep-rooted it’s practically underground. Add that to unlimited money and raw political will. You think someone will just walk in and unseat him in 2027? When he’s not ready to go? Be for real. Everything you can think of and those you can’t even name. Add to that bottomless money and a hunger for legacy.You really think anyone can unbench this man in 2027 if he doesn’t want to leave?My dear, wake up. The man is running unopposed already. And the suffering? Ah. Better buckle your seatbelt it’s a 6-year journey with potholes of pain.
9. The Opposition is a Joke:
PDP is still licking the wounds from its internal betrayal. Obi is fighting a moral war in a moral-less terrain. Kwankwaso is dancing between handshakes and handouts. Who is coming to unseat Tinubu? Be honest. WHO?
Yes, the ADC looks like they’re cooking something, bold strong voices, fresh energy, and a few intimidating game changers.
They may shake the table and grab a few gubernatorial seats, Senate and House of Reps slots. They might even surprise us. They may even shock us with a handful of wins and fireworks. Good. Let them shine. But let’s not kid ourselves when it comes to the presidential seat in Nigeria, it’s not by sense, not by saints, not by strategy alone it’s by a ruthless cocktail of structure, muscle, and madness. For ADC to take Aso Rock in 2027, it would take a miracle the size of Mount Everest in Oshodi. And Nigeria is not in the business of world wonders not yet.
10. The Masses are Tired but Divided:
We’re angry, yes. But scattered. Distracted. Divided along tribe, religion, and pocket change. Some are still waiting for ₦1k giveaways on election day. Others are praying for PVCs that they won’t even use. Let’s tell ourselves the truth, revolution is impossible where stomach infrastructure reigns supreme.
11. History Favors Incumbents:
Since 1999, every sitting president has had two terms. Even when we shouted “Clueless!” and “Lifeless!” they still returned. Why? Because incumbency in Nigeria is not a seat, it’s a fortress.
Even presidents with less grit, less street sense, and far weaker political muscle secured their second terms without much resistance. Even presidents with less political savvy and no street sense got their second terms without a fight.
You really think it’s Tinubu arguably the most calculated, rugged, and street-smart politician Nigeria has ever seen that will do just one term? Come on now. Nigeria hasn’t grown the spine to rewrite that part of its history. The script is old, but the cast keeps changing. And make no mistake history is about to repeat itself. Again.
So yes, this is the hard truth:
You see this suffering? We’re going to suffer it for another six years. Take it to the bank. Cash it. Frame it. Cry over it. But don’t say you weren’t warned.
This isn’t pessimism. It’s pattern recognition. And until the pattern is broken, the cycle continues.
We’re not just in a country. We’re in a carefully designed loop of power, money, silence, and survival.
And sadly, Tinubu already cracked the code.
And that’s on Nigeria.
Tell your hope to bring a helmet.
So save this. Frame it. Quote it. Cry over it. But don’t say you weren’t warned.
God help us all.
Stephanie Shaakaa
08034861434
