By this year’s second quarter, Dangote Refinery might be producing at full capacity,
which is 650,000 barrels per day.
This is happening at a time when China is driving the world's oil consumption to two million
barrels per day (bpd), bringing the overall demand to roughly 103 million bpd.
According to a recent Wood Makenzie projection that The Guardian could access yesterday,
refining capacity would rise by a very small 600,000 bpd this year.
According to the estimate, the successful ramp-up of Middle East capacity and high
utilization rates would accompany the growth.
The Dangote Refinery was singled out in the study as a major game changer, with emphasis
on how the plant will effectively ramp up to full capacity of 650,000 bpd by the end of the
the second quarter of this year.
“The refinery yield of middle distillates, like jet and diesel/Gasoil, will rise from a heavier
global crude slate as OPEC+ production returns," said Alan Gelder, senior vice president of
research at Wood Mackenzie.
However, according to Gelder, reducing interest rates and rebalancing the GDP is essential
to capture demand growth.
According to the research group, in 2024, there will be nearly two million barrels per day
increase in the demand for crude oil, with over 25 percent of that demand coming from
China.
According to the article “Oil and Chemicals: Five Things to Watch in 2024,” in addition to
China, three growing Asian markets—Indonesia, Vietnam, and Thailand—as well as the US
are also significant development areas.
According to Gelder, “The second half of the year will see a lot of growth (in oil demand),”
which will be “fueled by lower interest rates and improved economic growth.”
According to the analysis, as OPEC+ supply restrictions impede growth through 2024, oil
supply would expand more slowly than demand.
It further stated that in the absence of this output limitation, the market may become
oversupplied, particularly if demand growth is less than anticipated.
