True, I had not really paid attention to the direct verbal comments of the Kano political godfather, kingmaker, and idol beyond other reported speeches. However, I just stumbled on a video that inspired some admiration in me and offered insight into his oratory as a good talker, storyteller, joker, and a mind that radiates intellect. It is no small thing to speak before a crowd with a good head, wisdom, and maturity, with a high level of authority, conviction, and an overriding sense of validation that invites applause, persuasion, charm, agreement, and even positive emotion that reveals unanimous consensus.
It is a short video that shows Kwankwaso speaking with what looks like Kwankwasiyya members, symbolized by the red cap identity that unites them at the gathering. The topic is what I would personally caption as “calculated risk.”
The respected politician gave the account of how, if he had not taken the bold step of leaving government service, he would have retired long ago with nothing to fall back on, and possibly been miserable, if not long incapacitated by disease due to lack of activity and engagement, as politics permits. He shared a captivating tale about how his boss refused to accept the resignation letter he tendered to contest for a House of Representatives election and gave him two weeks to rethink. After the two weeks, his boss saw him and said, “Rabiu, you are still adamant with this resignation to join politics,” and he replied that there was nothing further to think about because judgment had been made: “no retreat, no surrender.”
He said he became a governor while the man was still an MD, the same man who had advised him to be patient as a tomorrow leader. He was left wondering how many people would need to pass before it could eventually be his turn. As governor, he said he made the man a permanent secretary after giving him two weeks to think about what he wanted, and if not for that step, the man would have retired as an MD. He told the tale to inspire them on the need for calculated risk to shape destiny and outcome. It tells the need to appreciate their calculations and political strategy that could redefine the nation and many destinies. This mirrors what political scientist James March calls the “logic of consequences” versus the “logic of appropriateness.” Politicians, March argues, often suspend appropriateness and act on expected outcomes, even when probabilities are thin.
Kwankwaso’s narration about calculated risk as the way of politics or life is a fascinating one. I made this observation in one of my write-ups, arguing that perhaps politicians are among the most courageous people on earth.
I argue, if it is not courage, how would someone take millions to purchase a form to contest an election that only one person will win, and there are dozens of contestants? Some of them vacate their positions as ministers to run for governor. Anyone who knows much about Nigerian politics knows that buying a form and resigning from work is just the beginning of many hurdles. Governor Bago of Niger State was perhaps one of the youngest contestants, switching constituencies with courage that paid off. If not for courage, how would politicians with questions about academic certificates dare the public? Yet many of them, despite knowing they are not perfect or that they have shortcomings, do not allow it to tie them down or defeat them. Behavioral economists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky’s prospect theory explains this: individuals overweight losses but politicians, by self-selection, exhibit lower loss aversion. They gamble because the perceived value of winning dwarfs the sunk cost of forms, campaigns, and reputation.
Imagine former President Goodluck Jonathan and the alleged insinuations of a return, despite the challenges in PDP and having overstayed his welcome. Look at the way Nyesom Wike is operating between PDP and APC like playing a chase. It is said that the only aspirant who was successful during last week’s bye-election under PDP nationwide, from Rivers State, is his puppet as usual. I also heard that his son is contesting for the House of Representatives in Rivers State.
El-Rufai’s son is a representative, and many of them before our eyes are playing the game where only their team dominates because of courage. The late Saraki senior installed almost all the governors in Kwara State before settling for his son and wanted his daughter to be next. If it is not courage or calculated risk, what is it? This is what Robert Michels termed the “iron law of oligarchy,” where organizations inevitably develop a ruling elite that perpetuates itself. Research from the Center for Democracy and Development shows that 63% of Nigerian elective offices between 1999 and 2023 had direct family succession or godfather imposition, evidence that risk is socialized within closed networks.
Kwankwaso was the brain behind the emergence of NNPP and Governor Abba Yusuf of Kano State. Now, his son has been planted to be a deputy governor under the NDC. If you like, insult, condemn, make noise. They remain focused, and politicians are not weighed down by public cynicism or discontent, which are usually inevitable regardless of any decision a politician takes.
I also acknowledge the fact that Kwankwaso’s choice as the vice presidential candidate to Peter Obi under the NDC platform is rooted in deep political strategy, calculated risk, and emotional strength.
I saw some politicians in opposition parties, especially ones from the same town as Governor Bago in Niger State or same tribe, campaigning with high faith, expectation, and hope. I used to wonder, are they not conscious that people will ask if they are the only ones, that they would remove a sitting governor only to be replaced by another candidate from his own town? But courage and calculated risk is the way of politicians and life.
Even political defections are motivated by calculated risk and courage. Peter Obi joined ADC and quickly realized they were only being managed into political silence, and quickly ran out despite criticism. It turned out that if he had remained, it would have been the political obituary of the century for a man with a cult-like fan base like no other. Political scientist Nic Cheeseman’s work on African party switching finds that defection, when timed, increases electoral viability by 41% compared to loyalty, because voters reward momentum over ideology.
The truth is that life decisions or fate do not always come with certainty, and there is always a need to take bold and calculated risk. That is when we can pray for luck. From enterprise, creativity, innovation, romantic relationships and so on, there must be calculated risk. And sometimes, loss or failure is what inspires this strength of calculated risk, not the comfort zone. The comfort zone eventually rewards complacency, not success. Job insurance breeds a culture of fear, avoids risk taking, and stalls self-development, because at the end of the day, the bell rings at month end, the meal ticket is ready, and nothing challenges you to do better or improve. This is why politicians continue to reign like monarchy, because we are too afraid to do anything extraordinary. Nassim Taleb’s concept of “antifragility” applies here: systems that avoid stressors grow weak, while those that embrace volatility, like politicians, gain from disorder.
Bagudu can be reached via bagudumohammed15197@gmail.com or 07034943575.
