The 2027 presidential election is gathering momentum. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is the sole candidate of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), while the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has cleared 17 other candidates to challenge him. Yet, rather than presenting a united alternative to the ruling party, Nigeria’s opposition remains deeply divided.
I have written about some of these presidential candidates before. Many are little more than unserious politicians seeking relevance or patronage rather than genuinely positioning themselves to take power. Omoyele Sowore of the African Action Congress (AAC), for instance, has turned his presidential ambition into a political ritual. Every four years, he returns to the ballot, loudly criticises the system and repeats the same strategy, seemingly expecting a different result.
I genuinely believe Sowore means well for Nigeria, but his strategy is not working. As I argued in my article, “Omoyele Sowore: Loud criticisms, silent ballot boxes”, he secured only 14,608 votes in the 2023 presidential election. Nigeria’s political system may be imperfect, expensive and frustrating, but it remains the arena in which political power is won and lost. Anyone seeking to transform it must learn how to compete effectively within it.
My concern in this article, however, is not Sowore. It is the two opposition politicians who have a realistic chance of challenging Tinubu: former Vice President Atiku Abubakar of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) and former Anambra State governor Peter Obi of the Nigerian Democratic Congress (NDC).
The irony is difficult to miss. Atiku and Obi once stood together on the same ticket as presidential candidate and running mate in 2019. Six years later, they are again on opposite sides, despite the obvious argument that neither man is likely to defeat Tinubu as easily without the other.
Obi wanted an alliance with Atiku, reportedly built around a commitment that he would serve only one four-year term and return the presidency to the North in 2031. Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso have now formalised a similar one-term understanding, with Kwankwaso saying that Obi signed an agreement to serve for only one term if elected. Yet the Atiku camp has remained sceptical. Its concern is understandable: once a president gets into office, what guarantee is there that he will voluntarily surrender power after four years? Some of Atiku’s aides also question why Obi who served two terms as Anambra state governor will now want to serve one term if elected as president in 2027.
But there is another question that both camps must answer: what is more important — personal ambition or rescuing Nigeria from another four years of APC rule?
I sincerely want Atiku and Obi to reach an agreement if they genuinely have Nigeria’s best interest at heart.
We have seen the best of President Tinubu, and it is not good enough for Nigeria. Nigerians should not be deceived by the argument that Tinubu has merely laid the foundation and that the benefits of his reforms will become evident after 2027. Nigerians heard the same argument in 2019 when the APC asked them to re-elect Muhammadu Buhari to enable him to consolidate the foundation he had supposedly laid from 2015.
When Buhari eventually left office, many of the same APC politicians who had defended his record began blaming him for the economic mess inherited by Tinubu.
Tinubu himself reinforced this argument in his 66th Independence Day address. He said previous administrations, including Buhari’s, had effectively administered “morphine” to Nigeria’s cancer through temporary measures rather than confronting the underlying disease. His administration, he said, chose instead to “excise the cancer” through painful reforms.
Fine. But Nigerians cannot be expected to endure another four years simply because the government says the pain will eventually produce prosperity. At some point, voters must judge the results before them.
This is why Atiku and Obi must stop playing political chess with each other and start thinking about the country.
Some analysts believe Atiku has a strong chance because of growing northern dissatisfaction with Tinubu. But what happens to those votes when other northern politicians, particularly Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso and his Kwankwassiya movement, take a significant share? On the other hand, others argue that Obi, who performed remarkably well in 2023 with a relatively less politically established running mate in Datti Baba-Ahmed, could be even stronger now with Kwankwaso beside him. The reality is, like Buhari did in 2015, whoever wants to defeat an incumbent president must do so convincingly, not with little votes that can easily be manipulated or force the election into a run-off or rerun.
Either way, the mathematics is simple. A divided opposition means divided votes. A divided opposition facing a ruling party with a relatively consolidated political structure can only produce one likely outcome: another APC victory.
Elders learn from their mistakes and experience is the best teacher. Atiku must therefore also learn from what played out in the 2023 presidential election. His decision to pick Ifeanyi Okowa rather than Nyesom Wike who came second in the PDP primaries, contributed to the bitterness that eventually produced the G5 rebellion within the PDP. Wike and his allies withheld support from Atiku and the rest is now history. Okowa is now in the APC government supporting Tinubu’s reelection. Atiku may have had his reasons for choosing Okowa, but history has demonstrated the consequences of that decision.
Atiku and Obi may have legitimate reasons for wanting to lead Nigeria. They may both believe they are the better candidate. But if they genuinely believe Tinubu’s government has failed Nigerians and that the country deserves a different direction, they must be prepared to sacrifice something.
One of them may have to step aside. If they refuse, Nigerians may reasonably ask whether they are really interested in defeating Tinubu or merely interested in becoming president themselves.
The 2027 election is too important for such selfish calculations. Nigeria cannot afford another opposition divided by ego, ambition and suspicion.
Atiku and Obi have a choice. They can continue separately, split the opposition vote and hand Tinubu another four years. Or they can put Nigeria first, agree on one candidate, unite their political structures and give Nigerians a credible alternative. If they genuinely want to oust Tinubu, this is the time to prove it.
Akinsuyi, former group politics editor of the Daily Independent, is a member of the Society of Editors, United Kingdom. He can be reached via shabydayo@gmail.com
