Former Minister of Sports and Youth Development, Barrister Solomon Dalung, has predicted a highly unpredictable 2027 presidential election, warning that none of the leading contenders may secure the required constitutional threshold to win outright.
Dalung said the fragmentation of Nigeria’s political landscape, coupled with the emergence of multiple strong contenders, could force the presidential contest into a runoff.
Speaking on the podcast Conversations with Prof. Jideofor Adibe, the former minister identified Peter Obi of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), Atiku Abubakar of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) and President Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) as the major contenders in the 2027 race.
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“I don’t see any of the candidates having a straight win. Bola Tinubu, on his part, cannot point to any state where he is confident of winning, including his Yoruba states,” Dalung said.
He argued that the traditional zoning arrangement had been significantly disrupted by the emergence of the three major contenders, making the 2027 contest increasingly difficult to predict.
Drawing a parallel with the recent Osun governorship election, Dalung said the outcome demonstrated that established political structures and perceived strongholds could no longer guarantee electoral victory.
He maintained that the 2027 presidential election could produce a similar scenario, with the strength of established parties being tested against voters’ preferences.
On the performance of the Tinubu administration, Dalung declared that the President had never had a social contract with Nigerians, accusing the government of failing to address the country’s fundamental challenges.
He, however, acknowledged that the administration had made some progress on local government autonomy and state police reform, while faulting it for failing to deliver on what he described as critical reforms.
“If I were to score the Tinubu administration, I would give it 30 per cent,” he said.
Dalung further predicted that the presidential election could go into a runoff, arguing that the fragmented opposition and the presence of multiple strong candidates could make it difficult for any contender to secure the required spread of votes.
He said the 2027 election was shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable presidential contests in Nigeria’s recent political history, with no candidate guaranteed an outright victory.
