The outcome of the assassination attempt on the Republican candidate for the November 5 US Presidential Election, Donald Trump on Saturday, may present opportunities for either the Democrats or the Republicans, depending on how the incident is managed in the aftermath.
This was the opinion of Jideofor Adibe, a Professor of Political Science, at Nasarawa State University, Keffi, when he appeared on Arise TV, to discuss the development in the US and the Kenyan protests.
Discussing the development with host, Dr. Reuben Abati, he noted that the incident had appeared to give the Republican candidate some bounce, as Americans love their leaders to be courageous and defiant, however, the conspiracy theories around the incident might change the narrative.
Describing such violence is not unusual in American politics, Prof. Adibe said. However, it is understandable that the leaders are condemning the incident because of the wrong signal it can send.
“The first political assassination of a president was in 1865 when Abraham Lincoln was assassinated. That was followed in 1881 when another president was assassinated. Then, in 1901 with William McKinley, and further down to 1981, when Ronald Regan was shot.
“Even as late as 2022 when the husband of Nancy Pellossi, former speaker of the House was also shot.
“And in between, there were several other attempts that were unsuccessful. For example, in 1994, somebody shot at the White House when Bill Clinton was in power, and in 2005, when George Bush was there, a grenade was howled at him during a campaign rally.
“So, such violence is not very uncommon but it is understandable that they had to say that such violence has no place in their politics.
“People had actually expected some violence given the amount of rhetoric between the Republicans and the Democrats.
“How will this affect the election? For now, it seems in the short term, to give some bounce to the Republican Presidential Candidate, Donald Trump.
“More importantly, notice that when he was shot, he was heard saying, ‘let me get my shoes’ and then ‘fight, fight, fight.’
“Americans like a projection of courage, vitality, and defiance.
“So you can understand that it will help the Republicans frame the masculinity of Trump.”
“But this is the early days, because we know that these are the early days and we will see how the event is handled by the spin doctors.
“Already, we are hearing that some people are saying it was a hoax, something Trump planned, while the Republicans are saying otherwise.
“When you look at what happened in 1981, Ronald Reagan who was shot was re-elected but then he was always going to be re-elected anyway.
“On the flip side, in 1912 when another candidate, Theodore Roosevelt was shot and he demonstrated also, that kind of masculinity by saying that he was as well as a ‘bull moose’, it still didn’t give him the Republican nomination.
“So, what will happen is that in the next couple of days, we will see how the spin doctors are shaping the narratives and it will be a contest over narratives.
“But right now, it appears the bounce will give some advantage to the Republicans. Remember, Trump’s son, Eric immediately posted that photograph of him with blood on his face and clenched fist, where he said- this is the fighter America needs.
“So, we will see how it pans out,” he said.
The professor of political science, who observed that democracy is temporarily receding in some Western countries, said this is because the democratic space is elastic.
In his opinion, “In the case of Trump, the American society is polarized in the middle between those forces that are seen as isolationist forces, people you can call anti-globalists.
“And for the first time, this a fight between two camps led by two elderly men.
“Other than that, there is nothing. Election everywhere in the world is regarded as war without weapons.
“So it tends to be very polarizing.
“But you know that for a country like America, after elections, they tend to unite. I would give you an example with Trump, after that January invasion at the Capitol, the Republican Party became so polarized that people thought it was finished.
“But despite all the problems, Trump was able to reunify the Republican Party behind his candidacy.
“But we would see that in the end, the basis of statehood remains settled unlike in our own society in Africa, where, if such a thing happens where the basis of statehood remains contested, it will be a danger for the state itself.”
Speaking on the protests in Kenya resulting from the tax hike legislation and President Ruto’s decision to withdraw the legislation and sack members of his cabinet, Adibe believes that “such concessions will make the Gen Z people and other forces teaming up with them realize that they have you in a tight corner and they will go for the jugular.
“Some people said that it is a sign that Ruto listens but you have seen the demand that he should go which is already thriving.”
“In Nigeria, they would have organized counter-protests and played on our traditional fault lines and blamed some people for trying to overthrow the government, and brought some people with loud voices to amplify such narratives.
“But I think that what is happening in Kenya, should be a lesson to other African leaders including our own Nigeria, that there is an extent to which you will push the people and they will be forced to close ranks.”
